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Designed by Amin Sabeti

Quantitative regime analysis

INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT

Iran Regime Collapse Probability

Quantitative assessment based on seven-pillar analytical framework

Last updated: July 16, 2026

Full Regime Change (RC-1) · 12-month
48%
80% uncertainty range: 28–67%
Derived, from today: within 90 days 15% (8–24) · within 6 months 27% (15–43)
Assumes evenly-spread hazard; if risk is front-loaded, the 90-day figure reads higher
Reflects scoring uncertainty in the seven pillars — how this range is derived →
Jul 13 recalibration: this model previously showed 85% — what changed →
87%
Any Political Transition · 12-month
80% range: 78–92%
82.5
Collapse Pressure Index

Probability Trend

Full regime change (RC-1) probability over time — as published, and the same days recomputed under the v2 method

As published (v1 → v2)v2 formula · v1 era, same scores
The orange line is what was published each day (hand-set before Day 93 — see the Integrity Log) and from Jul 13 it IS the v2 method. The yellow line applies the v2 geometric formula to the same days’ recorded scores (the v1 era) and ends on Jul 12. Over the hand-set era the two lines diverge widely (mean ~8 points, up to 54 early in the war); across the formula-driven June stretch they track within ~2 points. The Jul-13 drop from 85% to 47% came mostly from the cohesion score correction (11 → 41, ~30 points) plus the aggregation change (~8 points). Caveat: the Jul-13 audit implies the recorded cohesion scores in the preceding weeks were likely too low, so read the yellow line as a formula comparison, not a corrected history.

Full Record of Readings

The model has published 138 readings since Mar 2, 2026. In the pre-v2 era (Mar 2, 2026 – Jul 12, 2026) — readings hand-set until Day 93, computed under the v1 formula thereafter (see the Integrity Log) — the headline ranged from 55% to 89%, peaking at 89% on May 17, 2026. The current reading is 48% (v2, recalibrated Jul 13, 2026 18:00 GMT) and is not directly comparable to the v1 numbers — see the chart note.

Show all 138 readings
DateRC-1Change
Jul 16, 202648%+2
Jul 15, 202646%−2
Jul 14, 202648%+1
Jul 13, 2026 23:00 GMT47%0
Jul 13, 2026 18:00 GMT47%v2recalibration
Jul 12, 202685%+1
Jul 11, 202684%+2
Jul 10, 202682%−1
Jul 9, 202683%+1
Jul 8, 202682%+2
Jul 7, 202680%+3
Jul 6, 202677%+3
Jul 5, 202674%0
Jul 4, 202674%+1
Jul 3, 202673%0
Jul 2, 202673%0
Jul 1, 202673%0
Jun 30, 202673%−1
Jun 29, 202674%−1
Jun 28, 202675%+3
Jun 27, 202672%+3
Jun 26, 202669%+3
Jun 25, 202666%+2
Jun 24, 202664%−2
Jun 23, 202666%−1
Jun 22, 202667%+5
Jun 21, 202662%+2
Jun 20, 202660%0
Jun 19, 202660%−4
Jun 18, 202664%−1
Jun 17, 202665%−6
Jun 16, 202671%−1
Jun 15, 202672%0
Jun 14, 202672%−7
Jun 13, 202679%−1
Jun 12, 202680%−2
Jun 11, 202682%−1
Jun 10, 202683%0
Jun 9, 202683%0
Jun 8, 202683%0
Jun 7, 202683%0
Jun 6, 202683%+1
Jun 5, 202682%−1
Jun 4, 202683%−1
Jun 3, 202684%+2
Jun 2, 202682%0
Jun 1, 202682%+1
May 31, 202681%−6
May 30, 202687%0
May 29, 202687%0
May 28, 202687%+4
May 27, 202683%0
May 26, 202683%−1
May 25, 202684%+4
May 24, 202680%−2
May 23, 202682%−6
May 22, 202688%+1
May 21, 202687%0
May 20, 202687%+1
May 19, 202686%0
May 18, 202686%−3
May 17, 202689%+2
May 16, 202687%+1
May 15, 202686%0
May 14, 202686%0
May 13, 202686%0
May 12, 202686%0
May 11, 202686%+1
May 10, 202685%+1
May 9, 202684%−2
May 8, 202686%0
May 7, 202686%+1
May 6, 202685%0
May 5, 202685%−1
May 4, 202686%+1
May 3, 202685%0
May 2, 202685%0
May 1, 202685%0
Apr 30, 202685%0
Apr 29, 202685%0
Apr 28, 202685%0
Apr 27, 202685%0
Apr 26, 202685%0
Apr 25, 202685%0
Apr 24, 202685%0
Apr 23, 202685%0
Apr 22, 202685%+1
Apr 21, 202684%−1
Apr 20, 202685%0
Apr 19, 202685%+1
Apr 18, 202684%0
Apr 17, 202684%0
Apr 16, 202684%0
Apr 15, 202684%0
Apr 14, 202684%0
Apr 13, 202684%0
Apr 12, 202684%+1
Apr 11, 202683%0
Apr 10, 202683%0
Apr 9, 202683%0
Apr 8, 202683%−1
Apr 7, 202684%+2
Apr 6, 202682%0
Apr 5, 202682%0
Apr 4, 202682%+1
Apr 3, 202681%+1
Apr 2, 202680%0
Apr 1, 202680%0
Mar 31, 202680%0
Mar 30, 202680%+1
Mar 29, 202679%+1
Mar 28, 202678%0
Mar 27, 202678%0
Mar 26, 202678%0
Mar 25, 202678%+1
Mar 24, 202677%0
Mar 22, 202677%+1
Mar 21, 202676%0
Mar 20, 202676%+1
Mar 19, 202675%+1
Mar 18, 202674%+1
Mar 17, 202673%+1
Mar 16, 202672%+1
Mar 15, 202671%0
Mar 14, 2026 22:00 GMT71%+1
Mar 14, 2026 18:00 GMT70%0
Mar 12, 202670%0
Mar 11, 202670%+1
Mar 10, 202669%+1
Mar 9, 202668%0
Mar 8, 202668%+1
Mar 7, 202667%+1
Mar 6, 202666%0
Mar 5, 202666%0
Mar 4, 2026 18:00 GMT66%+2
Mar 4, 2026 12:00 GMT64%+4
Mar 3, 202660%+5
Mar 2, 202655%—

Seven Pillars

View detailed breakdown →
P1-MD

Military Degradation

↑
99
Weight: 15%
P2-SAC

Security Apparatus Cohesion

↓
43
Weight: 25%
P3-EF

Economic Fragility

↑
99
Weight: 15%
P4-PM

Popular Mobilization

↑
96
Weight: 12%
P5-EXT

External Environment

↑
99
Weight: 10%
P6-INC

Information & Narrative Control

→
9
Weight: 8%
P7-RAC

Regime Adaptive Capacity

↑
21
Weight: 15%

Understand the Model

This assessment combines seven weighted pillars into a single Collapse Pressure Index and maps it to a probability through a published formula. Every headline number is computed from the pillar scores — nothing is hand-set.

Read the Methodology