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Designed by Amin Sabeti

Quantitative regime analysis

INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT

Iran Regime Collapse Probability

Quantitative assessment based on seven-pillar analytical framework

Last updated: April 16, 2026

Full Regime Change (RC-1)
84%
30-90 days±10pp
99%
Any Political Transition
96.6
Collapse Pressure Index
±10pp
Confidence Interval

Time-Phased Projections

Probability of full regime change (RC-1) within each rolling time window from the current date.

Next 1-5 years
69%
Full Regime Change (RC-1)
Next 90 days - 1 year
75%
Full Regime Change (RC-1)
HEADLINE
Next 30-90 days
84%
Full Regime Change (RC-1)
Next 30 days
84%
Full Regime Change (RC-1)

Probability Trend

Full regime change (RC1) probability over time

Historical data points based on ongoing model assessment

Seven Pillars

View detailed breakdown →
P1-MD

Military Degradation

↑
99
Weight: 15%
P2-SAC

Security Apparatus Cohesion

↓
1
Weight: 25%
P3-EF

Economic Fragility

↑
99
Weight: 15%
P4-PM

Popular Mobilization

↑
78
Weight: 12%
P5-EXT

External Environment

↑
97
Weight: 10%
P6-INC

Information & Narrative Control

↓
1
Weight: 8%
P7-RAC

Regime Adaptive Capacity

↓
3
Weight: 15%

Understand the Model

This assessment combines seven weighted pillars, interaction effects, and historical calibration to produce a quantitative probability of regime change.

Read the Methodology