INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT
Iran Regime Collapse Probability
Quantitative assessment based on seven-pillar analytical framework
Last updated: June 8, 2026
Full Regime Change (RC-1)
83%
Next 30 days±10pp
96%
Any Political Transition
90.98
Collapse Pressure Index
±10pp
Confidence Interval
Probability Trend
Full regime change (RC1) probability over time
Historical data points based on ongoing model assessment
Seven Pillars
View detailed breakdown →P1-MD
Military Degradation
↑
96
Weight: 15%
P2-SAC
Security Apparatus Cohesion
↓
8
Weight: 25%
P3-EF
Economic Fragility
↑
99
Weight: 15%
P4-PM
Popular Mobilization
↑
85
Weight: 12%
P5-EXT
External Environment
↑
95
Weight: 10%
P6-INC
Information & Narrative Control
↓
14
Weight: 8%
P7-RAC
Regime Adaptive Capacity
↓
19
Weight: 15%
Understand the Model
This assessment combines seven weighted pillars, interaction effects, and historical calibration to produce a quantitative probability of regime change.
Read the Methodology