Seven Pillars

Detailed breakdown of current scores with supporting evidence

Last updated: March 19, 2026

P1-MD

Military Degradation

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Weight: 15% • Direct

• Day 17: IDF has carried out 7,600+ strikes across 5,000 aerial sorties since Feb 28; ACLED documented nearly 2,000 distinct strike events across 29 of Iran's 31 provinces — near-total military saturation; IRGC spokesman confirmed weapons used so far are 'from a decade prior' — newer systems not yet deployed; 290 of 410-440 fixed launchers destroyed, Iran switching to mobile launchers (Al Jazeera/ACLED/CENTCOM, March 16)
• Day 16: IDF announced plans for at least 3 more weeks of strikes, mapped through Passover (~April 5) and beyond — 'thousands of targets remaining'; White House: Iran's ballistic missile capability reduced ~90%, drone capability ~95% since Feb 28; 65+ Iranian naval vessels sunk; 6,000+ total targets struck cumulatively (Jerusalem Post/CNN/CENTCOM, March 15)
• Day 14: US General Caine (Joint Chiefs, Pentagon briefing): Iran's navy declared 'operationally incapable' — official US military assessment; 6,000+ cumulative strikes on Iranian targets (March 13)

P2-SAC

Security Apparatus Cohesion

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Weight: 25% • Inverted

• Day 19: Intelligence Minister Esmaeil Khatib killed in overnight IDF airstrike in Tehran — described as 'a central player in plots targeting American officials'; third senior official killed in 24 hours; strike enabled by 'joint US-Israeli intelligence effort' per senior Israeli official; President Pezeshkian publicly confirmed Khatib's death (CNBC/Al Jazeera/Washington Post, March 18)
• Day 18: Ali Larijani (SSNSC Secretary and de facto governing head since Khamenei's assassination) killed in IDF strike in heart of Tehran — highest-profile targeted killing since Khamenei himself; Gholamreza Soleimani (Basij commander, 6 years in post) killed + deputy Rassem Qoreishi + senior officials in same strike on Basij tent camp in Tehran; entire internal security suppression leadership decapitated; IDF Chief Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir reported 'significant elimination achievements' (IDF/Al Jazeera/Times of Israel, March 17)
• Day 17: Iran launched 'Operation True Promise 4' directly targeting US troops at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar — first confirmed strike on a major US forward base; IRGC given autonomous operational authority in all provinces in event of communication failure; Mojtaba Khamenei still has not appeared on video or audio (Day 17) — only written statements read by TV anchor; Iran preparing civil war contingency plans for Kurdish, Ahwazi Arab, and Baluch separatist scenarios (MEE exclusive, March 16)

P3-EF

Economic Fragility

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Weight: 15% • Direct

• Day 19: South Pars offshore gas field struck by US-Israeli forces — world's largest natural gas field; neighboring Asaluyeh refineries also hit; Brent crude surged 6.3% to $109.95/barrel; European gas benchmark jumped 9.3%; Iran explicitly threatened five Gulf energy facilities in retaliation: Saudi SAMREF refinery, Jubail petrochemical, UAE Al Hosn gas field, Qatar Ras Laffan refinery, Mesaieed petrochemical (Bloomberg/Al Jazeera/The National, March 18)
• Day 17: Strait of Hormuz effectively closed — Iranian blockade cut at least 60% of Gulf daily oil exports; IEA called it 'the largest disruption to global energy supplies in history'; oil exceeded $100/barrel with analysts warning $200/barrel possible; EU energy import bill up €6 billion since Feb 28; UAE airspace temporarily closed after drone strike on fuel tank near Dubai Airport; Fujairah oil hub fire and port operations disrupted (Al Jazeera/IEA/Reuters, March 16)
• Day 15: IEA declared 'largest supply disruption in history of global oil market'; Kharg Island struck (90+ military targets) — 90% of Iran's oil exports through single hub now under direct attack; fire at UAE's Fujairah oil hub; Iran threatening Strait of Hormuz mining (Al Jazeera/Reuters, March 14)

P4-PM

Popular Mobilization

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Weight: 12% • Direct

• Day 20: Chaharshanbe Suri (fire festival eve of Nowruz) — citizens defied wartime crackdowns to celebrate; PMOI Resistance Units carried out 15 operations targeting 'centers of repression'; Nowruz (March 20) arrives as historic protest flashpoint; internet blackout severely limiting coordination but defiance documented; NPR: 'Fear, defiance, and anger: Iranians describe life under bombardment' (NPR/NCRI/PMOI, March 19)
• Day 18: Basij commander Gholamreza Soleimani and his deputy killed — entire internal security suppression leadership decapitated; Mojtaba Khamenei formally rejected all peace proposals: 'not the right time for peace — US and Israel must first be defeated and pay compensation'; conflict total exceeds 2,000 dead across the broader Middle East (Al Jazeera/Times of Israel/Daily Sabah, March 17)
• Day 17: Basij mobilized for urban warfare and checkpoint operations — filling security gaps left by destroyed police infrastructure; Iranian authorities preparing civil war contingency plans for Kurdish, Ahwazi Arab, and Baluch separatist challenges (MEE exclusive); Mojtaba rejected all peace proposals: 'not the right time for peace — US and Israel must first be defeated and pay compensation' (Al Jazeera/MEE, March 16)

P5-EXT

External Environment

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Weight: 10% • Direct

• Day 20: US weighing ground troop deployment inside Iran — Reuters + NBC both confirmed Trump 'privately showing serious interest'; options include Kharg Island and Iranian coastline along Hormuz; if executed = regime-ending scenario; 12-nation Riyadh meeting (Qatar, Saudi, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan, Lebanon, Syria, Azerbaijan) jointly condemned Iran under UN Charter Article 51; Saudi FM: 'the little trust that remained has been completely shattered'; warned 'nonpolitical options remain available' (Reuters/NBC/Al Jazeera, March 19)
• Day 19: South Pars gas field struck — Iran named five Gulf energy facilities as explicit retaliation targets; all six GCC states now under active Iranian attack; UN IMO began emergency talks on Hormuz closure; US Energy Secretary Wright predicted 'war will end in weeks' — implies US sees an endpoint but no ceasefire yet; Brent at $109.95 threatening global recession (Bloomberg/Euronews/Al Jazeera, March 18)
• Day 18: Mojtaba Khamenei formally rejected all peace proposals — 'not the right time for peace'; IDF explicitly stated regime change is NOT a war goal (significant doctrinal limit); IDF plans 3+ more weeks with 'thousands of targets remaining'; Canada, France, Germany, Italy, UK joint statement warned ground offensive in Lebanon would be 'devastating'; France offered to host Israel-Lebanon negotiations (Times of Israel/Al Jazeera/Reuters, March 17)

P6-INC

Information & Narrative Control

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Weight: 8% • Inverted

• Day 19: Intelligence Minister Khatib killed — Iran's intelligence apparatus now leaderless; Larijani (de facto governor), Soleimani (Basij), and Khatib (intelligence) all eliminated within 24 hours; IRGC command devolved to autonomous provincial authority = centralized governance broken; three simultaneous leadership eliminations unprecedented in IRI history (CNBC/Al Jazeera/NPR, March 18)
• Day 18: Ali Larijani killed — Iran's de facto governing head and chief Western negotiator eliminated; Basij commander Soleimani + deputy killed; Kataib Hezbollah commander Abu Ali al-Askari killed; regime has now lost its most capable political operator, its internal security commander, and its proxy commander simultaneously; Netanyahu posted video to counter viral rumors of his own death (Times of Israel/NBC, March 17)
• Day 17: Kataib Hezbollah commander Abu Ali al-Askari killed (announced March 17, strike occurred March 14); IRGC command devolved to autonomous provincial authority — centralized command broken; Iran's internet blackout entered 18th consecutive day with most citizens still cut off (NetBlocks, March 16)

P7-RAC

Regime Adaptive Capacity

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Weight: 15% • Inverted

• Day 20: Israel struck Iranian naval vessels at Bandar Anzali on the Caspian Sea — first-ever IDF strikes in the Caspian region; 4 missile boats + 1 corvette destroyed; opens entirely new front ~260km from Tehran; Iran simultaneously unable to defend Caspian, Persian Gulf, and Strait of Hormuz; regime geographically encircled; Trump threatened to 'massively blow up entirety of South Pars' if Qatar attacked again — regime has no response to escalation threat (Times of Israel/Maritime Executive, March 19)
• Day 18: Larijani's death leaves Mojtaba (untested, invisible for 18 days) and subordinated Pezeshkian as only remaining civilian governance figures; IRGC autonomous authority in provinces = centralized governance broken; 7,600+ strikes in 18 days with IDF planning 3+ more weeks; US Tomahawk strike on Minab primary school killing 168 schoolgirls confirmed by Amnesty/UN/NYT/BBC — growing international accountability pressure on US (Al Jazeera/Amnesty/UN, March 17)
• Day 17: IRGC using decade-old missiles — IRGC spokesman stated weapons deployed so far are 'from a decade prior'; 290 of 410-440 fixed launchers destroyed, forced to switch to mobile launchers; Iran still loading ~1.5M barrels/day to China but consuming nations drawing on emergency reserves; Iraq negotiating with Iran for passage of Iraqi tankers through Hormuz — bilateral workaround signals diminished control (Al Jazeera/IRGC/Reuters, March 16)

Understanding the Scores

Direction

Direct pillars: Higher score = more collapse pressure
Inverted pillars: Lower score = more collapse pressure

Trends

↑ Increasing — conditions worsening for regime
↓ Decreasing — conditions improving for regime
→ Stable — no significant change

Critical Context

The January 2026 massacre killed at least 32,000 civilians. This is based on Iran International reporting and regional hospital data. The regime's internet blackout was designed to prevent documentation. This mass killing fundamentally altered Security Apparatus Cohesion (SAC), Information Control (INC), and Regime Adaptive Capacity (RAC) scores.