About This Model
A data-driven assessment of Iranian regime stability
What This Is
The Iran Regime Collapse Probability Model (IRCPM) is a quantitative framework for assessing the likelihood of political transition in Iran. It combines seven weighted pillars into a Collapse Pressure Index and maps it to the headline probabilities through two published logistic curves.
This is analytical modeling. The model measures systemic pressure on the regime, not specific event predictions.
Disclaimer
This model represents analytical assessment based on available information. Every probability carries inherent uncertainty — the uncertainty range shown alongside the headline number is derived from per-pillar scoring uncertainty (see Methodology).
The January 2026 massacre killed at least 32,000 Iranian civilians. This assessment reflects that reality without hedging or false equivalence.
This is an independent project by Amin Sabeti.