About This Model
A data-driven assessment of Iranian regime stability
What This Is
The Iran Regime Collapse Probability Model (IRCPM) is a quantitative framework for assessing the likelihood of political transition in Iran. It combines seven weighted pillars, interaction effects, and historical calibration to produce time-phased probabilities.
This is analytical modeling. The model measures systemic pressure on the regime, not specific event predictions.
Disclaimer
This model represents analytical assessment based on available information. All probabilities carry inherent uncertainty (±10pp confidence interval).
The January 2026 massacre killed at least 32,000 Iranian civilians. This assessment reflects that reality without hedging or false equivalence.
This is an independent project by Amin Sabeti.