DashboardMethodologyPillarsAbout

Designed by Amin Sabeti

Quantitative regime analysis

Methodology

The Iran Regime Collapse Probability Model (IRCPM) is a quantitative framework for assessing the likelihood of political transition in Iran.

Seven Pillars

The model scores seven pillars (0-100) and combines them using differential weighting. Three pillars are inverted (lower score = more collapse pressure).

Military DegradationWeight: 15%
99
Security Apparatus CohesionWeight: 25%
INVERTED5
Economic FragilityWeight: 15%
99
Popular MobilizationWeight: 12%
73
External EnvironmentWeight: 10%
95
Information & Narrative ControlWeight: 8%
INVERTED7
Regime Adaptive CapacityWeight: 15%
INVERTED4

How It Works

  1. 1. Score pillars — Each pillar scored 0-100 based on evidence
  2. 2. Apply weights — Multiply scores by weights, sum to get CPI
  3. 3. Logistic function — Convert CPI to base probability
  4. 4. Interaction effects — Check four interaction thresholds, apply multipliers
  5. 5. Rally dampener — Apply 0.93× dampener
  6. 6. RC-1 fraction — Multiply by 0.68 to get full regime change probability

Interaction Effects

When certain conditions are met, pillars interact to amplify collapse pressure. Combined multiplier: 1.93×

Military × Security
1.22×ACTIVE
Extreme military degradation (95) — 5,500+ targets, navy eliminated — compounds near-total security force disintegration (13)
Economy × Security
1.2×ACTIVE
Salary/Nowruz crisis (95) — government cannot pay employees — destroys security force payment mechanism amid leadership vacuum (13)
Mobilization × Info
1.12×ACTIVE
Mobilization (62) rising toward Nowruz salary crisis trigger, amplified by total loss of narrative control (17)
External × Security
1.18×ACTIVE
Explicit regime change campaign (93) with no off-ramp ('too late') — Russia support is limited (no ground/air) — exploits security apparatus collapse (13)

Historical Calibration

The model was calibrated against 11 historical cases of authoritarian regimes under military pressure. Classification accuracy: 10/11 (91%)

• Iraq 1991, Iraq 2003, Libya 2011, Afghanistan 2001, Syria 2024 (collapsed)

• Syria 2011-15, Venezuela 2019 (survived)

• Iran 1979, Egypt 2011, Romania 1989 (transitioned)

Limitations & Caveats

  • • Structural model — Probability represents systemic pressure, not event prediction
  • • Uncertainty — All probabilities have ±10pp confidence interval
  • • Information blackout — Iran's internet restrictions limit ground visibility