INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT
Iran Regime Collapse Probability
Quantitative assessment based on seven-pillar analytical framework
Last updated: March 19, 2026
Full Regime Change (RC-1)
75%
30-90 days±10pp
96%
Any Political Transition
94
Collapse Pressure Index
±10pp
Confidence Interval
Time-Phased Projections
Probability of full regime change (RC-1) within each time window. All horizons are measured from the conflict start date: February 28, 2026.
T1: 1-5 years
61%
RC-1
T2: 90 days - 1 year
65%
RC-1
T3: 30-90 days
75%
RC-1
HEADLINE
T4: 0-30 days
76%
RC-1
Probability Trend
Full regime change (RC1) probability over time
Historical data points based on ongoing model assessment
Seven Pillars
View detailed breakdown →P1-MD
Military Degradation
↑
99
Weight: 15%
P2-SAC
Security Apparatus Cohesion
↓
5
Weight: 25%
P3-EF
Economic Fragility
↑
99
Weight: 15%
P4-PM
Popular Mobilization
↑
73
Weight: 12%
P5-EXT
External Environment
↑
95
Weight: 10%
P6-INC
Information & Narrative Control
↓
7
Weight: 8%
P7-RAC
Regime Adaptive Capacity
↓
4
Weight: 15%
Understand the Model
This assessment combines seven weighted pillars, interaction effects, and historical calibration to produce a quantitative probability of regime change.
Read the Methodology